GoLearnForex Daily Technical Analysis

Posted by TomShort on October 28, 2009 under daily technical anlysis | Be the First to Comment

USD/CAD:

We have noted several times a formation we refer to as a Step pattern. More commonly this is identified by Lower Lows and Lower Highs and vice versa. We picked up on this pattern emerging on a 4 hours chart. We identified the possible start of this pattern shortly after the BOC publicly declared it’s sentiment for a “weak Canadian Dollar”. We assured you that there would still be time to catch this move even if you could not trade the actual news.

We suggested that you wait for the Step to appear and buy on the dip which was a confirmation of our pattern formation. On the graph that it is depicted near the 3 and a yellow circle. The exit for taking PNL we had at 1.0660 a prior support resistance point.

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EUR/USD:

The Squeeze Play. We talked about this move where we are seemingly forced into a breakout. In one of our earlier pieces we mentioned that our experience told us not to bet on the Squeeze Play, meaning trade against the direction of the existing trend. I must admit we got carried away by the hoopla of crossing 1.50.

So the question you all should pose” is why in this case do you bet against the trend when one of the number one rules of technicians is never bet against the trend”. The answer is based on the number two rule of technicians and that is; trade for the outcome that has the highest statistical probability of occurring. To explain this further lets pose a question. Why didn’t the market make this move a while ago similar to the recent strong moves in CHF & AUD?

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The answer is the Strength of the move was deteriorating in advance of 1.50. Every trader had their eye on 1.50, but obviously no one was a real buyer (for now) otherwise at 1.4830 when momentum started to stall we would have had traders continuing to bid up the EUR. Lastly, when price action was negligible on the big cross of 1.50 that should have been another tip that there were no big orders lined up to continue buying north of 1.50.

We added a MACD to indicate when the momentum started to wane. There are number of overbought tools on your platforms that you can use, from Stochastics and Oscillators to something as simple as the RSI.

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar rose across the board. A rise in risk aversion following an unexpectedly drop in New Home Sales sent stocks lower worldwide. The Dow Jones fell for the 4th consecutive session and ended at 9,763.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 2% on concern a rally in equities this year outpaced the prospects for economic growth. New-home sales unexpectedly fell last month to an annual rate of 402K, from a revised 417K pace in August. Crude oil fell from $79 a barrel to $77.20 on stronger Dollar. Gold (XAU) continues to move away from the highs of the year and fell to test levels below $1,030 an ounce. Today, The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected at 3.1% vs. -0.7% previously. The Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 520K vs. 531K previously.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro kept weakening versus the Dollar for the 4th day in a row. The currency slumped against Dollar and Yen, reaching a 2 week low against both safe havens. The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) came out as expected at 0.1%. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4690 and with a high of 1.4840. Today, The German Unemployment Change is expected with 15K vs. -12K previously. The German Unemployment Rate is expected at 8.3% vs. 8.2% previously.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4700

Resistance	1.48	1.4842	1.489
Support	1.471	1.4675	1.465

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound failed to hold above 1.6400 versus the Dollar finding support only at 1.6360 following economic data in the U.S and Dollar\’s strength. GBP/USD peaked at the highest price for the current week but it was unable to hold versus the strengthening Dollar. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6285 and with a high of 1.6466. Today, Net Lending to individuals is expected unchanged at 0.7B. The Mortgage Approvals also expected unchanged at 52K.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6368

Resistance	1.651	1.6575	1.6640
Support	1.6355	1.6285	1.6240

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen rose sharply versus most majors as weak economic data sent world stocks lower fueling risk aversion. The Yen reached the highest in 2 weeks against the Euro amid signs the global economic recovery is losing steam, damping demand for higher-yielding assets. Industrial Production came out 1.4%better than 1.1% expected. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 90.54 and with a high of 91.80. Today, Household Spending is expected lower with 1.2% versus 2.6% and Tokyo Core CPI is expected with -2.0% versus -2.1% prior.

USD/JPY-Last: 90.42

Resistance	91.3	91.75	92.1
Support	90.5	90.1	89.9

Canadian dollar (CAD)

Canada’s currency depreciated against its U.S. counterpart to the lowest level in more than three weeks as declines in crude oil, the nation’s largest export, and stocks damped demand for higher-yielding assets. Overall, USDCAD traded with a low of 1.0636 and with a high of 1.0810. Today, The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) is expected at 1% vs. 3.7% previously.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.0790