Posted by TomShort on November 30, 2009 under daily forex analysis | 
Moving Averages Are Not So Average by GoLearn Forex
Moving Averages – they are not so average
EUR/USD and USD/CHF
On Thursday of last week we saw the EUR and CHF finally break near term resistance. The EUR cleanly sliced through 1.50 and took out near term resistance around the 1.5055 handle. The CHF finally broke parity with the Dollar after struggling for weeks.
The very next day the Dollar was saved by the news coming out of Dubai. Risk aversion was on as traders unwound short Dollar positions to cover themselves. We discuss Moving Averages a fair amount especially since the 50 SMA has acted as support for such an extended period of time and for a number of currencies such as the EUR and CHF.
The CHF touched .9918 on Wednesday only to give back its gains on Thursday. In the Chart below notice the CHF low on Friday as fear penetrated the market place. As a sense of calm returned the CHF was again bouncing off the 50 SMA, as support held again.
INSERT CHART CHF
The EUR easily breached resistance last Wednesday when the DXY hit new lows for the year. As you can see on the Chart below it closed just below the Fibonacci Retrace level of 76.4%. The very next day the EUR gave back all its gains as the market was reeling from the news of the day.
As details emerged and fear stirred recent wounds in the market the EUR plummeted again. Notice the level the EUR hit before retracing its losses on Friday. The 50 SMA again held support for the EUR.
INSERT CHART EUR
The moral here: Do not discount these as just “average” lines. Even if you question the indicative validity of a moving average the very fact that institutional traders monitor these levels makes them exceptionally important if for no other reason.
Mixed Day for Global Equity Markets After Dubai’s Announcement by GoLearn Forex
It was a mixed day for the Global Equity Markets on Friday following Dubai’s debt default announcement the day before. The markets in Asia continued to sell off while in Europe they apparently felt the exposure was sufficiently contained. In the U.S on Friday after returning from Holiday the day prior, it was the DJIA’s turn to take some risk off the table as it closed lower by 154.48 points to 10,309.92 Opening session futures are pointing positive in premarket hours.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Central Bank issued a statement indicating they would offer financing to the local and foreign banks at 50bp over the 3month local benchmark rate. This facility offered by the U.A.E C.B will ensure liquidity and restore some confidence in the market.
On the economic data docket for Monday we have a number items set to print out of the U.K. However, forex traders will be analyzing Black Friday sales numbers as well as the ensuing weekend figures. Currently, net sales figures look to be on par with last year. Additionally for Monday, Euro-zone CPI will hit the wire as will Canadian GDP.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 30, 2009
EUR CPI (YoY) Forecast 0.40% Previous -0.10%
CAD GDP (MoM) Forecast 0.40% Previous -0.10%
USD Chicago PMI Forecast 53.00 Previous 54.20
AUD Interest Rate Decision Forecast 3.75% Previous 3.50%
Posted by TomShort on under forex market |
It would be the time soon when you will start learning forex trading in the Pipsology School. This is so, as learning to trade in forex is now become so easy by common people like you and me, having the potential of educating themselves before they became forex traders successfully. The Pipsology School curriculum was designed with the novice traders in mind making an effort to try to figure out the different ends or odds of forex trading. By imitating your school experiences this curriculum of forex trading will take you all throughout the consecutive grading levels while you are learning the basics of forex trading in the market.
At the Kg level, one will learn the different kinds of trading and the kinds of forex charts that are useful to analyze the forex market. By the end of this level, a person would be mastered and well worth with analyzing price movements in the market with the help of the forex charts and the market fundamentals.
At the first level, you will be made familiar with reading the charts such as candlestick, bar, etc as the most significant way to read on the forex market. Here, you will come to know the ways of reading the sell or buy activities of bears and the bulls.
In the second level of your learning stage, you will be learning about the resistance and the support levels. It will teach you the ways of reading the resistance, the biggest point prior to an upwards market starts turning in the opposite direction. The points wherein the downward movements start turning upwards are known as support. With the help of these support and resistance levels, one can learn to plot the channels as well as the trend lines.
In the third grade, they will teach you about the Fibonacci numbers and retracement. This level can be used as resistance and support level as well as profit making level, also. You will learn how the forex traders keep on observing these levels for placing their sell and the purchase orders.
In the forth level, the emphasis is mostly on moving averages. These simple moving averages are put forward as a method to track the performance levels of forex trading rates and to show the movement of the other traders.
The fifth grade will take an individual by all of the very common forex chart signals that are being used to analyze the market indices. The relative strength index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, MACDs is introduced to a person in this fifth level.
This is only the beginning of the forex trading education and options trading in forex. All these important basics will enable a person to proceed on the advanced levels in the Pipsology School of Curriculum.
This is simply the start of your forex options trading and currency trading education. These basics will allow you to move on to the more advanced levels in the School of Pipsology curriculum. After completing the course, you will be able to actively do forex options trading and currency trading and start raking in pips.
Posted by Daytrader on under forex market |
Some of the few major types of currencies which are being traded in one of the biggest trading market of world, known as FX or FOREX market are the currency of Germany that is Euro, the Pound of Britain, the Yen of Japan and the Franc of Swiss, and the last but not the least are the currencies of following countries like Australia, Canada and the USA.
Most of the people who make an entry into this particular market of trading, find it really very tough. People, who first go and learn all the details about FOREX trading, assumes that place of trading is quite difficult. Actually in the field of FOREX trading, people make use of monetary system in order to purchase certain kind of items as well as services, but it’s not used to buy some other kind of currency.
Although, all these processes seems to be quite difficult but the hard core fact is that it’s not that difficult in understanding. Just imagine if you are traveling or going to some other country, then you will need the currency of that particular nation where you are going. So once you reach your destination, you need to go to an exchanger or you need to go to a bank who can exchange your currency with some other currency and then you have to make a trade with your original currency that can be pounds or rupees in order to purchase dollars or franc. At the time of returning back home, you need to carry out the same process but in opposite direction. There are certain times when the monetary value undergoes a change between the exchanges of two different currencies, and at those particular times you will be the one making a small amount of profit or losing a bit.
Same is the process with a FOREX trader. The only whole sole reason is that he or she performs this particular process quite often and that too with huge amount of money. And the other reason is that, he or she is not doing all this because they are traveling, they are doing this because they believe that there will be a sudden shift in the rate of exchange.
In more simple words, these traders are able to see a valid opportunity in currency trading and think that they can actually make quite a huge amount of profit.
Well, now I hope you all got the general idea about trading in this market.
So the main question that arises here is that how will you be able to get into the trading world of FOREX market?
The fact about this trading market is that it’s really very easy to make an entry into it, but it’s not that easy to maintain the levels of profits.
Posted by Daytrader on under Daily Forex review |
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar lowered versus most majors on Friday as Dubai debt concerns were reduced due to UAE’s pledge to back foreign and domestic banks in Dubai. NASDAQ and Dow Jones dropped by -1.73% and -1.48% after being closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving. Crude fell by -2.45% closing at 76.05$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) fell for the first time in 9 days with -1.08% change closing at 1174.2$ an ounce. Today, Chicago PMI is expected weaker with 53.1 versus 54.2 prior.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro gained slightly versus the Dollar on Friday’s session as liquidity was lower and stocks declined as a result of Dubai’s financial crisis. The Euro paired its losses as rumors of the UAE backing Dubai’s bank leaked to the market. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4828 and with a high of 1.50. Today, CPI Flash Estimate is expected with 0.5% versus -0.1% prior.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.5025
|
Resistance
|
1.5055
|
1.5100
|
|
|
Support
|
1.4950
|
1.4870
|
1.4825
|
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound gained versus the Dollar after UAE’s pledge to back Dubai raised risk appetite again lifting the Pound from its monthly lows. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6271 and a high of 1.6510. Today, Net Lending to Individuals is expected with 0.8B versus 0.6B prior, stronger result will lead to less need to expend Britain’s QE program. Mortgage Approvals are expected stronger with 59K versus 56K prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6540
|
Resistance
|
1.6590
|
1.6650
|
|
|
Support
|
1.6450
|
1.6375
|
1.6325
|
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen weakened versus the Dollar as uncertainty about the Dubai crisis lowered following UAE’s announcement. Investors shifted back from the safety of the Yen to higher yielding currencies. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 85.08 and a high of 87.01 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 127.38 and a high of 130.14. No economic data expected today.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.80
|
Resistance
|
87.05
|
87.50
|
88.00
|
|
Support
|
86.30
|
85.75
|
85.25
|
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar remained unchanged versus the Dollar as commodities prices dropped but Dubai’s financial crisis uncertainty lowered. Current Account came out weaker than expected with -13.1B versus -12.9B forecast and -11.9B prior. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0585 and a high of 1.0748. Today, GDP is expected stronger with 0.4% versus -0.1% prior. RMPI is expected stronger with 3.1% versus -1.1% prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0585
|
Resistance
|
1.0650
|
1.0700
|
1.0750
|
|
Support
|
1.0570
|
1.0540
|
1.0505
|
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
Posted by Daytrader on November 27, 2009 under Daily Forex review |
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar climbed against all majors after Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt by 6 month caused Europe Stocks to drop heavily and spurred investors to seek the safety of assets perceived as lower risk. Stocks market in U.S were close due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Crude oil fell by 3% closing at 76.2$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) closed almost unchanged at 1191.85 $ an ounce but dropped during Asia session falling back to 1170$ levels. No economic data expected today.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro fell against the Dollar following the collapse of stock markets in Europe as a result of Dubai’s debt rescheduling. EUR/USD pair traded with a low of 1.4959 and with a high of 1.5141. Loans to Euro zone households and firms fell in October for the second month in a row, coming at 0.3% vs. 0.7% forecast. No important data expected today.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4945
|
Resistance
|
1.5020
|
1.5100
|
1.5144
|
|
Support
|
1.4913
|
1.4830
|
1.4800
|
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound fell versus the Dollar as stocks declined and a proposal by Dubai to delay debt payments prompted investors to seek what they perceive to be safer securities. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6466 and with a high of 1.6725. CBI Realized Sales came out at 13 vs. 12 forecast.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6406
|
Resistance
|
1.6530
|
1.6648
|
1.6720
|
|
Support
|
1.6376
|
|
|
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen rallied to a 14-year high against the Dollar, climbing past the 85.00 level, on speculation Japanese monetary authorities will tolerate further appreciation of the currency. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 84.81 and with a high of 87.48. Tokyo Core CPI came out better than expected at -1.9% vs. -2% forecast.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.37
|
Resistance
|
87.00
|
87.70
|
88.62
|
|
Support
|
85.80
|
85.00
|
|
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart by the most in almost four weeks as Dubai’s plan to reschedule its debt spurred a sell-off in crude oil, gold and equities. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0450 and with a high of 1.0620.Today, Current Account is expected at -12.9B vs. -11.2B prior.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0626
|
Resistance
|
1.0641
|
1.0719
|
|
|
Support
|
1.0587
|
1.0530
|
1.0450
|
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
Posted by TomShort on under forex market |
Many strategies are applied in the forex trading world by different traders in order to earn profits but many of the traders are still in search of that particular strategy which can bring them the rewards. Forex Trading Mechanical System is adopted by many traders in order to improve their chance to earn high profits utilizing the Forex Mechanical System Trading tool. But, it is very important for you to keep few things in mind before you decide to go for such mechanical systems in order to increase your chances in the forex market.
Forex Mechanical System Trading can help you in many ways. The system will tell you about the current signals that prevail in the forex market and make it easy for you to take a decision whether to go according to the signal or go against it. So, it becomes very important for you as a trader to take the correct decision when selecting the right Forex Mechanical System trading tool for you. You should keep one thing in mind, though these Forex Mechanical System Trading tools will provide you the signal but still you have to go according to your strategy when you receive these signals and in this way the system will realize what needs to be done every day while trading. You can also take the help of your Forex Mechanical System Trading system to depict and forecast and tell you whether it is the right time to jump into the marketand do the trading.
When you have a forex mechanical system trading, you can work with it and understand it in a better manner. If you do so, you will come to know whether the system is fulfilling all your forex needs or not. Many professional traders also use the forex mechanical system trading tools. They use them to understand better about the forex mechanical system trading tool and the importance of owing a forex mechanical system trading tool and how it is working for the other traders in fulfilling their forex market needs. When we are sure that the forex mechanical system trading is a good system with the help of which we can receive good trading signals about the market, we can utilize these signals in our trading process as it will be of great help in improving our trading techniques and help us to achieve higher profits in the forex market. This is the very reason why many people work very hard and follow all the necessary steps that they need to take so that they can make their forex mechanical system trading work for them as it is very useful tool which can help them to asses all the different strategies because it is very important aspect of successful working of this system.
Posted by Daytrader on under forex market |
It is human nature to commit mistakes especially when something is very new to you. So, it is not a crime to commit a mistake in the forex market but it is advisable to learn from your mistakes and avoid committing the same mistakes again.
This article is all about some of the costliest forex trading mistakes. So go through all the mistakes and avoid committing them.
Many people enter the market and they want to earn quick profits. Then are least bothered about the functioning of the market and they are not bothered to learn also. This is something that you should avoid. Forex market is a simple trading market but it still requires some skills to be learned. It is always advisable to gain as much information as you can about the market. It will help you only as you will be aware of the market situations and won’t be trading blindly. You can go online and read as much you want to read about the forex market. There is a lot of information available about the market over the net. You can take online courses, practice trading using the training tools, get familiarize with the market before you start trading in the market.
Margin is the money that the broker lends you for trading. But, you should understand this, there is a very high interest rate associated with this margin money. Therefore, the risks involved are high. Because, if you lose then the debts that are incurred on you will be very high and you will have a hard time repaying them. Most of the forex trading brokers charge 50% of the account value as a margin value.
You will be very excited when you get to know something about the market that is not known to others and you will be tempted to make use of it and invest a large amount based on the information. But remember one thing, forex market is the most volatile market and the situations in the forex market changes in a fraction of a second. So, when you get to know something like this, it is better to confirm it by doing your own research and then proceed.
Though long term investments are not a bad option but it is not a good practice to buy a currency at a low price and hope that the prices will increase in future. Sometimes, situation may not turn out as you wanted and you can suffer a loss. You should check for accountability. Why the prices are so cheap? Therefore, you should do your homework and always try to find out the actual reason behind such cheap rates.
You can earn a lot from forex trading as it is very simple. This article covered most common mistakes committed. Just try avoiding these mistakes and it will improve your success rate.
Posted by TomShort on November 26, 2009 under daily forex analysis |
Greenback Makes Headlines by GoLearn Forex
The U.S Dollar made headlines yesterday unfortunately for the Greenback it was not positive. The DXY, an index weighted basket of currencies against that Dollar, hit a low for the year touching just below 74.20 before a mild retreat. EUR and CHF both took out near term resistance with the EUR touching an intra-day high of 1.5145 and the CHF dropped below Dollar parity to .9920.
Global Equity Markets were mostly up as the DJIA closed its session ahead 30.69 points to 10,464.40 before the U.S Holiday. Gold struck 1,192 and Oil briefly crosses $78 a barrel before leveling off, as Crude Oil inventories in the U.S were reported to be on the rise.
There are a number of economic data releases due out in Japan and the Euro-zone. The ones to watch will be the CPI from the Euro-zone and the Jobless Rate in Japan. Today is a U.S Holiday, so expect lighter than normal volumes across all markets.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 26, 2009
GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey Forecast 11.00 Previous 8.00
EUR German CPI (MoM)
Forecast 0.00% Previous 0.10%
JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) Forecast -2.00% Previous -2.20%
NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) Previous 2.30%
GoLearn Forex Year End Review
Year End:
Thanksgiving in the U.S marks the beginning of the Holiday Season. The day after Thanksgiving known as Black Friday marks the commencement of the Holiday shopping season. Many analysts view this particular season as one of the most important shopping seasons in recent history. The idea is simple. If the consumer stays home and sales are down significantly it may be the final nail in the coffin for many retailers who are still struggling from sluggish sales and hard to find credit.
The following are some important economic data releases to watch heading into the final month of 2009. Economic data releases related to the Consumer, Housing, and the Federal Reserve will capture forex trader’s attention the most. Let’s take a brief moment and highlight the key releases under those 3 sectors.
Consumer – “Retail Sales” will enable traders to gauge consumer spending and the impact on the retail market and its trickle-down effect. The “Unemployment Rate” will be a good indicator of whether the consumer will derail, assist, or possibly be neutral in a pending recovery.
Housing – “Home Sales” both new and existing will continue to be very important as this is the sector that nearly caused the financial collapse. As many as 1 in 4 home owners are underwater so it is vital that home sales and home prices stabilize.
Federal Reserve – comments, minutes, and meetings dictate financial policy. Any speculation of a possible rate increase will strengthen the Greenback. The reason behind why the FED may want or need to raise rates will be secondary to the actual intimation of a hike.
An additional variable to consider heading into year-end will be liquidity. There are many ingredients that feed into this equation. Many funds are up huge this year and want to lock in profits for their year-end closing of the books. This is very important given last year’s massive losses. Therefore you can expect typical end of year slack in volume. Another factor that affects liquidity will be the actual hoarding of cash by corporations and banks in order to shore up balances sheets before they report their financials. To this effect, we have already seen the 3 month T-Bill turn a negative yield as these institutions sock cash away.
Barring some catastrophic event most analysts believe that the Dollar will continue to depreciate. Here are some suggestions for trading the market. Firstly, let’s look at today (Nov. 25th) we had positive prints for Jobless Claims and New Home Sales. Positive means that things are less negative. The economy is losing fewer jobs but still not adding any new ones either. The Dollar tanked on the news (see chart below) as its G-10 rivals advanced smartly.
INSERT CHART
Until the news turns truly positive (and not just less negative) it allows traders to take risks. Traders view the economy as stabilizing but not to the extent that the FED can raise rates. When data releases are negative the impact is measured in “derailments”. Derailments are defined as the potential to slow or even reverse a global recovery. In summary, go short on the Dollar on news which is positive (meaning less negative than the prior month). Go long the Dollar against the currencies that appreciated the most against it when truly negative data prints.
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Posted by Daytrader on under Daily Forex review |
USD Dollar (USD)
The Dollar fell across the board after the Federal Reserve said the global recession is reaching its end and signaled it will tolerate a weaker Dollar, which encouraged investors to buy riskier assets. Unemployment Claims came out batter than the forecast at 466K vs.500K forecast and New Homes Sales climbed more than forecast at 430K vs. 408K forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose by 0.32% and 0.29% respectively, crude oil jumped by 2.6% closed nearly to 78$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) rose by 1.8% reached to a new record high during the day (above 1190$ ) but finally closing at 1187$ an ounce . No economic data expected today.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro surged to a 15 month high against the Dollar after the Federal Reserve refrained from voicing concern over the U.S. currency’s decline. GFK German Consumer Climate came out at 3.7 vs. 4.2 forecast. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4955 and with a high of 1.5144. Today, German Prelim CPI is expected at 0.0% vs. 0.1% prior and M3 Money Supply is expected at 0.7% vs. 1.8% prior.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.5102
|
Resistance
|
1.5144
|
|
|
|
Support
|
1.5095
|
1.5040
|
1.5000
|
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound rose versus the Dollar after the GDP report data was released and showed the UK economy shrank less than previously estimated in the third quarter, coming out at -0.3%, bringing the longest recession on record closer to an end. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6574 and with a high of 1.6744. Today, CBI Realized Sales is expected at 12 vs. 8 prior.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6654
|
Resistance
|
1.6724
|
1.6820
|
|
|
Support
|
1.6643
|
1.6503
|
1.6472
|
Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen continued to strengthen versus the Dollar after breaking below 88 for the first time in 10 months as the Federal Reserve’s signal that it will tolerate a weaker Dollar encouraged investors to buy assets outside America. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 87.21 and with a high of 88.63, trade balance came out better than expected at 0.42T vs. 0.31T forecast. No economic data expected today.
USD/JPY-Last: 86.51
|
Resistance
|
87.48
|
88.37
|
89.13
|
|
Support
|
86.29
|
|
|
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar strengthened to the highest level in a week versus the Dollar after Russia’s central bank said it will add the currency to its reserves and as copper rose and gold headed for the longest string of gains in almost three decades. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0449 and with a high of 1.0583. No economic data expected today.
CAD/USD – Last: 1.0500
|
Resistance
|
1.0526
|
1.0642
|
1.0726
|
|
Support
|
1.0450
|
|
|
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
Posted by TomShort on under forex market |
There are numerous types of markets that offer the investor a chance to profit. The procedures that are to be followed are different for each market. For instance, there is the Futures Market which deals in commodities like Food grains, seed oils and similar things. The traditional Stock market is also prevalent which deals in stocks like bonds and commercial bills. There is also the Gold Market that deals in the precious metals like Silver, Gold and Platinum. The Forex Trading Market is also existent which deals in foreign currency. The name Forex is derived from the two words Foreign and Exchange.
There are many factors which contribute to the existence of this market. They are mentioned below:
1. Investment and trade: The commodities traded in this market are the foreign currencies themselves. One needs to buy the other currency in his base currency, whichever is used in his nation. He can then trade using that procured currency or the original currency itself. While converting the currencies, there are differences in the amount of money utilized and made. This difference is either the profit or the loss.
2. Fluctuation: The Forex Trading Market is known to be extremely volatile and unpredictable. The currency values are always either going up or down. It is a very rare case that the currency remains stable or stagnant. This is the primary reason behind the volatile nature of the market. A Forex Market Trader has to find a way to be in an advantageous position in between the immense fluctuation.
3. Hedging Factor: If we consider the fluctuation between the USD and EUR, then any European company that owns a factory in the US, will have to convert the USD to EUR to have all the profits and losses in one standard of measure. While setting up the factory, the company has to think about many risks regarding the two currencies and their performance altogether. This is because they directly affect the company’s performance. If the factory hays to be sold, then it also involves certain risks and these risks can be eliminated by the process of hedging.
4. Development of the market: The Forex Trading Market has grown to become the largest international market the world has witnessed. The market is not as old as compared to the other markets, but it has grown at a very high rate. Statistics show that the daily turnover of the market is close to about $3.8 trillion. Due to the global nature of the market, it remains open to the investors at all hours of the day for five days a week. There are specific things to prioritize if the investor wants to succeed in the market. Some of them are namely the trading strategy, the broker involved and the platform he provides to the investor.
